Smarter Bond Issuance: Missed Timing Costs Millions

In bond markets, timing is often underestimated. Yet every issuance date locks in funding costs for years to come. Even a few basis points make a difference — sometimes the difference between saving or losing millions. Our research on 1,307 euro-denominated corporate bonds from 2023–2024 makes this clear: 38% were issued on the wrong day. On average, each of these bonds carried €5 million in unnecessary costs. In some cases, issuers lost more than €20 million simply because they chose the wrong timing.

Figure 1: Distribution of TimingRanks for calendar year 2023 and 2024
Why does this happen? Because most issuers still rely on rules of thumb: seasonal issuance patterns, blackout periods, or the intuition of lead managers. These methods are part of market convention, but they lack empirical backing. And too often, they fail. That is why we developed the Market Issuance Timing Indicator (MITI) — to replace uncertainty with clarity.

The MITI indicator produces a score from 0 to 100:

• 0–30 means extremely unfavorable conditions — waiting is likely to pay off.
• 31–69 indicates neutral or average conditions, where no clear advantage or disadvantage for issuance can be identified.
• 70 or above signals a statistically favourable window for issuance.

Instead of navigating blind, issuers now have a data-driven compass. MITI is built on a dataset of over 4,500 euro-denominated corporate bonds since 2019 and grows daily with each new issuance. It learns, adapts, and improves — offering a tool that becomes sharper over time. For issuers, the impact is tangible: fewer costly mistakes, more efficient funding, greater confidence in the decision-making process. For the market as a whole, MITI brings transparency where there used to be intuition.

The bottom line: timing is no longer guesswork. With MITI, issuers can approach bond issuance with the same precision and discipline that already guide pricing and risk management — and in doing so, unlock millions in savings.

Better Pricing, Better Timing, Smarter Issuance.

Read the Full Guide (PDF)